MMPF 1.0.0rc1

Three modes

Fastest and most certifiable are different questions.

A mode is not a speed setting. It decides which quantity the selector minimises, and the two quantities genuinely disagree — in 24 of 30 benchmark cases they pick different routes.

Performance

Selects the route with the lowest machine-adjusted empirical predicted cost. It is the mode that wins the benchmark, with median regret 1.000 — on half the cases it picks exactly what an oracle with hindsight would have picked.

Its worst case is 4.210× the oracle. That number is the honest reason the other mode exists.

Assurance

Selects the route with the lowest route-conditional conformal upper cost bound. It costs 188.089 ms across the benchmark against performance mode's 99.995 ms, and its max regret is 6.745×.

Paying nearly twice as much to be slower sounds like a bad trade until the question changes. Performance mode answers which route is likely to be quickest. Assurance answers which route lets me state a cost I can defend. Only the second one can be put in a contract.

not covered

The bound held in 28 of 30 cases — 93.333%. It is calibrated per route, and it is not a simultaneous guarantee across all the routes being adaptively compared.

That distinction is the third of the four reasons this release is a candidate rather than a stable 1.0.

Batch

For small registries, individual GCD. For a candidate registry and batch that are both large enough, a shared remainder tree. The crossover is measured, not assumed — the project records probe cost at bounds from 97 up to 100,000.

EngineTimeRelative
Individual GCD1.666 ms1.000×
remainder_tree0.663 ms2.513× faster

At batch size 128 and bound 10,000 the calibrated engine and the measured best engine were the same. That agreement is recorded as a result, not assumed as a property.

What a mode does not decide

  • Choosing a modechoosing an answer — both modes factor the same integer correctly
  • A lower predicted costa guarantee of a lower actual cost
  • A conformal upper bounda simultaneous guarantee over adaptively compared routes
  • Calibration agreeing with measurement oncecalibration being correct in general